Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.100614 0.113860 0.128193 0.144856 0.163700 0.184353 0.208711
2025-12-28 0.081234 0.098783 0.119167 0.144598 0.175495 0.211839 0.257882
2026-01-04 0.065059 0.084479 0.108542 0.140562 0.182099 0.234226 0.304730
2026-01-11 0.053779 0.074275 0.101262 0.139422 0.192075 0.262305 0.363350
2026-01-18 0.045526 0.066657 0.096123 0.140257 0.204822 0.296063 0.435269
2026-01-25 0.036803 0.056940 0.086585 0.133472 0.205971 0.314185 0.488728
2026-02-01 0.029664 0.048354 0.077322 0.125561 0.204171 0.327757 0.537907
2026-02-08 0.024691 0.042293 0.070938 0.121038 0.206860 0.348612 0.602086
2026-02-15 0.020606 0.036996 0.064933 0.116126 0.208083 0.367270 0.665880
2026-02-22 0.018285 0.034338 0.062939 0.117736 0.220741 0.407242 0.773510
2026-03-01 0.015553 0.030482 0.058219 0.113660 0.222470 0.428078 0.849888
2026-03-08 0.013429 0.027414 0.054460 0.110755 0.225895 0.452537 0.937345
2026-03-15 0.011623 0.024726 0.051121 0.108360 0.230440 0.480913 1.039942
2026-03-22 0.010551 0.023362 0.050205 0.110784 0.245341 0.532754 1.201242
2026-03-29 0.009317 0.021442 0.047828 0.109709 0.252657 0.570081 1.338390
2026-04-05 0.008389 0.020042 0.046351 0.110394 0.264068 0.618417 1.509938
2026-04-12 0.007663 0.018981 0.045463 0.112298 0.278694 0.676665 1.716275
2026-04-19 0.006634 0.017012 0.042141 0.107798 0.277160 0.696698 1.832969
2026-04-26 0.005686 0.015079 0.038585 0.102096 0.271630 0.706104 1.924694
2026-05-03 0.005000 0.013699 0.036179 0.098934 0.272126 0.730898 2.062232
2026-05-10 0.004384 0.012397 0.033758 0.095306 0.270747 0.750622 2.190018
2026-05-17 0.004065 0.011857 0.033273 0.096927 0.284224 0.812920 2.451147
2026-05-24 0.003599 0.010816 0.031244 0.093801 0.283588 0.835823 2.601461